Penn State
Big Ten
2024 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2024
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ West Virginia | 12–34 | 23.5–31.5 | 14.0 |
| Week 2 | vs Bowling Green | 27–34 | 9.2–41.3 | 25.1 |
| Week 4 | vs Kent State | 0–56 | 6.7–49.3 | 13.4 |
| Week 5 | vs Illinois | 7–21 | 17.8–33.8 | 2.0 |
| Week 6 | vs UCLA | 11–27 | 15.1–35.7 | 4.6 |
| Week 7 | @ USC | 30–33 | 26.2–26.7 | 2.5 |
| Week 9 | @ Wisconsin | 13–28 | 22.3–27.1 | 10.2 |
| Week 10 | vs Ohio State | 20–13 | 31.3–25.1 | 0.8 |
| Week 11 | vs Washington | 6–35 | 19.8–31.7 | 17.0 |
| Week 12 | @ Purdue | 10–49 | 16.0–39.3 | 15.7 |
| Week 13 | @ Minnesota | 25–26 | 22.2–27.8 | 4.6 |
| Week 14 | vs Maryland | 7–44 | 19.8–35.5 | 21.3 |
| Week 15 | @ Oregon | 45–37 | 27.3–27.4 | 8.1 |
| Week 1 | vs SMU | 10–38 | 20.8–35.8 | 13.0 |
| Week 1 | @ Boise State | 14–31 | 23.7–33.2 | 7.4 |
| Week 1 | vs Notre Dame | 27–24 | 26.9–26.4 | 2.5 |