2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 11:30 PM · Beaver Stadium
Illinois @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Illinois
17.8
Penn State
33.8
Penn State win probability: 84%
Margin (Penn State − Illinois): 16.0 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: Illinois 7 – Penn State 21 (margin error 2.0, total error 23.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.