Penn State

Big Ten

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 9	vs Purdue	21.3–35.5	82%
Week 10	@ Washington	24.5–23.8	48%
Week 11	vs Minnesota	15.7–30.3	83%
Week 12	vs Rutgers	20.4–36.5	84%
Week 13	@ Maryland	19.8–31.8	78%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs Marshall	0–45	15.1–40.8	19.3
Week 2	@ Temple	9–27	15.3–40.0	6.7
Week 3	vs Buffalo	13–55	9.2–41.9	9.3
Week 4	vs Wisconsin	24–20	17.9–32.0	18.1
Week 5	@ Northwestern	34–13	27.7–24.8	18.2
Week 6	vs USC	31–23	25.3–31.8	14.4
Week 7	@ Michigan	21–18	26.6–23.6	0.0