Penn State
Big Ten
2023 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2023
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs West Virginia | 15–38 | 19.6–35.2 | 7.3 |
| Week 3 | @ Illinois | 13–30 | 22.7–32.5 | 7.2 |
| Week 4 | vs Iowa | 0–31 | 16.5–31.4 | 16.1 |
| Week 5 | @ Northwestern | 13–41 | 22.4–34.1 | 16.2 |
| Week 7 | vs Massachusetts | 0–63 | 10.4–46.1 | 27.3 |
| Week 8 | @ Ohio State | 20–12 | 30.0–24.1 | 2.1 |
| Week 9 | vs Indiana | 24–33 | 15.5–38.4 | 13.9 |
| Week 10 | @ Maryland | 15–51 | 26.2–30.4 | 31.8 |
| Week 11 | vs Michigan | 24–15 | 29.4–24.6 | 4.2 |
| Week 12 | vs Rutgers | 6–27 | 17.0–33.2 | 4.8 |
| Week 13 | @ Michigan State | 0–42 | 15.9–35.7 | 22.2 |
| Week 1 | vs Ole Miss | 38–25 | 27.0–31.0 | 17.1 |