2023 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023, 7:30 PM · SECU Stadium
Penn State @ Maryland
Predicted scoreLean
Penn State
30.4
Maryland
26.2
Maryland win probability: 40%
Margin (Maryland − Penn State): -4.2 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Penn State 51 – Maryland 15 (margin error 31.8, total error 9.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.