2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 4:00 PM · Beaver Stadium
Indiana @ Penn State
Predicted scoreConfident
Indiana
15.5
Penn State
38.4
Penn State win probability: 92%
Margin (Penn State − Indiana): 22.9 (80% range 3 to 45)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Indiana 24 – Penn State 33 (margin error 13.9, total error 3.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.77% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.70% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.