2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 5:00 PM · Beaver Stadium
Rutgers @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Rutgers
17.0
Penn State
33.2
Penn State win probability: 85%
Margin (Penn State − Rutgers): 16.2 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 73)
Actual: Rutgers 6 – Penn State 27 (margin error 4.8, total error 17.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.