2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 11:30 PM · Beaver Stadium
West Virginia @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
West Virginia
19.6
Penn State
35.2
Penn State win probability: 84%
Margin (Penn State − West Virginia): 15.7 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: West Virginia 15 – Penn State 38 (margin error 7.3, total error 1.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.