2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 4:00 PM · Ryan Field
Penn State @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreLikely
Penn State
34.1
Northwestern
22.4
Northwestern win probability: 24%
Margin (Northwestern − Penn State): -11.8 (80% range -32 to 10)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Penn State 41 – Northwestern 13 (margin error 16.2, total error 2.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:03 PM | -11.8 | 56.5 | 24% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:31 PM | -11.8 | 56.5 | 24% |