2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 11:30 PM · Beaver Stadium
Iowa @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Iowa
16.5
Penn State
31.4
Penn State win probability: 83%
Margin (Penn State − Iowa): 14.9 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 47.9 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: Iowa 0 – Penn State 31 (margin error 16.1, total error 16.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.