2023 Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023, 12:30 AM · Ford Field (neutral site)

Penn State @ Michigan State

Predicted scoreConfident

Penn State

35.7

Michigan State

15.9

Michigan State win probability: 10%

Margin (Michigan State − Penn State): -19.8 (80% range -41 to 0)

Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Penn State 42 – Michigan State 0 (margin error 22.2, total error 9.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.