Michigan State

Big Ten

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	@ UCLA	31.5–19.0	21%
Week 10	@ Michigan	30.2–18.4	22%
Week 11	vs Washington	25.5–23.6	45%
Week 12	vs Oregon	29.5–18.7	24%
Week 13	@ Rutgers	26.8–29.9	58%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs Toledo	20–30	23.2–27.0	6.1
Week 2	vs Eastern Michigan	7–35	18.6–34.8	11.8
Week 3	@ Notre Dame	27–10	38.3–14.6	6.7
Week 4	vs Nebraska	31–13	30.6–24.3	11.7
Week 5	@ Wisconsin	31–3	27.5–21.2	21.6
Week 6	vs Illinois	38–37	28.5–26.3	1.2
Week 7	vs Northwestern	24–21	33.3–21.0	9.3