2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Rose Bowl
Michigan State @ UCLA
Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan State
19.0
UCLA
31.5
UCLA win probability: 79%
Margin (UCLA − Michigan State): 12.5 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:53 PM | 2.9 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:51 PM | 2.8 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:32 PM | 2.9 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:09 AM | 2.9 | 52.1 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:13 PM | 2.8 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:12 PM | 1.0 | 52.2 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:49 PM | 4.9 | 54.8 | 62% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:46 PM | 5.6 | 54.3 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:13 PM | 5.6 | 54.3 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:26 AM | 5.7 | 54.2 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:55 PM | 5.7 | 54.2 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:01 PM | 11.7 | 52.5 | 77% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:52 PM | 13.1 | 52.6 | 79% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:07 PM | 13.1 | 51.4 | 80% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:13 PM | 12.5 | 50.4 | 79% |