2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 1:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Oregon @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLikely
Oregon
34.1
Michigan State
19.1
Michigan State win probability: 17%
Margin (Michigan State − Oregon): -14.9 (80% range -35 to 6)
Total: 53.2 (80% range 31 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:49 PM | -14.9 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:44 PM | -14.9 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:20 PM | -14.9 | 53.2 | 17% |