2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 1:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Oregon @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLikely
Oregon
29.5
Michigan State
18.7
Michigan State win probability: 24%
Margin (Michigan State − Oregon): -10.8 (80% range -31 to 9)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:49 PM | -14.9 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:44 PM | -14.9 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:20 PM | -14.9 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:35 AM | -14.9 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:33 PM | -15.0 | 53.1 | 17% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:49 PM | -15.0 | 52.9 | 17% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:50 PM | -14.4 | 55.4 | 18% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:48 PM | -7.5 | 54.8 | 32% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:16 PM | -7.5 | 54.8 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:30 PM | -7.4 | 54.8 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:52 PM | -7.4 | 54.7 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:27 PM | -11.9 | 52.0 | 22% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:13 PM | -14.0 | 52.7 | 19% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:11 PM | -12.7 | 49.7 | 20% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:46 PM | -10.8 | 48.2 | 24% |