2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Toledo @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Toledo
23.8
Michigan State
26.6
Michigan State win probability: 57%
Margin (Michigan State − Toledo): 2.7 (80% range -17 to 23)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:11 PM | 2.7 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:12 PM | 2.7 | 50.3 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:25:52 PM | 2.7 | 50.4 | 57% |