2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Nebraska @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Nebraska
26.8
Michigan State
25.1
Michigan State win probability: 45%
Margin (Michigan State − Nebraska): -1.7 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:52 PM | -1.7 | 51.2 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:00 PM | -1.7 | 52.0 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:02 PM | -1.7 | 51.9 | 45% |