2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Nebraska @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLean
Nebraska
30.6
Michigan State
24.3
Michigan State win probability: 34%
Margin (Michigan State − Nebraska): -6.3 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Nebraska 31 – Michigan State 13 (margin error 11.7, total error 11.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:52 PM | -1.7 | 51.2 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:00 PM | -1.7 | 52.0 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:02 PM | -1.7 | 51.9 | 45% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:52 AM | -1.7 | 52.0 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:43 PM | -1.7 | 52.0 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:02 PM | -2.1 | 51.2 | 45% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:11 PM | -4.7 | 54.1 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:42 PM | -6.5 | 54.3 | 34% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:05 PM | -6.3 | 55.0 | 34% |