2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Washington @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Washington
25.5
Michigan State
23.6
Michigan State win probability: 45%
Margin (Michigan State − Washington): -1.9 (80% range -21 to 17)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:31 PM | -6.6 | 49.6 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:30 PM | -6.6 | 49.6 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:51 PM | -6.6 | 49.5 | 34% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:47 AM | -6.6 | 49.5 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:11 PM | -6.7 | 49.5 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:52 PM | -6.6 | 49.4 | 33% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:48 PM | -7.1 | 49.5 | 32% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:14 PM | -3.9 | 49.5 | 40% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:01 PM | -3.9 | 49.5 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:15 PM | -3.7 | 49.4 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:32 PM | -3.7 | 49.4 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:33 PM | -2.1 | 47.0 | 45% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:05 PM | -2.2 | 47.5 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:04 PM | -1.4 | 49.8 | 46% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:11 PM | -1.9 | 49.0 | 45% |