2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Washington @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLean
Washington
28.1
Michigan State
21.5
Michigan State win probability: 34%
Margin (Michigan State − Washington): -6.6 (80% range -27 to 13)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:31 PM | -6.6 | 49.6 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:30 PM | -6.6 | 49.6 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:51 PM | -6.6 | 49.5 | 34% |