Michigan State
Big Ten
2023 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2023
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Central Michigan | 7–31 | 17.0–36.3 | 4.7 |
| Week 3 | vs Washington | 41–7 | 31.0–27.1 | 30.1 |
| Week 4 | vs Maryland | 31–9 | 26.8–29.1 | 24.3 |
| Week 5 | @ Iowa | 26–16 | 19.6–22.4 | 12.8 |
| Week 7 | @ Rutgers | 27–24 | 24.5–21.3 | 0.3 |
| Week 8 | vs Michigan | 49–0 | 35.2–15.7 | 29.5 |
| Week 9 | @ Minnesota | 27–12 | 26.5–24.8 | 13.3 |
| Week 10 | vs Nebraska | 17–20 | 23.7–23.4 | 3.3 |
| Week 11 | @ Ohio State | 38–3 | 35.8–13.7 | 12.8 |
| Week 12 | @ Indiana | 21–24 | 27.0–25.8 | 4.1 |
| Week 13 | vs Penn State | 42–0 | 35.7–15.9 | 22.2 |