2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM · Spartan Stadium
Maryland @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Maryland
26.8
Michigan State
29.1
Michigan State win probability: 56%
Margin (Michigan State − Maryland): 2.3 (80% range -18 to 23)
Total: 55.9 (80% range 31 to 81)
Actual: Maryland 31 – Michigan State 9 (margin error 24.3, total error 15.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.