Michigan State
Big Ten
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Western Michigan | 6–23 | 21.9–30.9 | 7.9 |
| Week 2 | vs Boston College | 40–42 | 24.6–24.5 | 2.1 |
| Week 4 | @ USC | 45–31 | 35.3–19.1 | 2.2 |
| Week 6 | @ Nebraska | 38–27 | 31.6–19.8 | 0.8 |
| Week 7 | vs UCLA | 38–13 | 25.5–30.2 | 29.7 |
| Week 8 | @ Indiana | 38–13 | 41.2–11.6 | 4.6 |
| Week 9 | vs Michigan | 31–20 | 30.3–20.8 | 1.5 |
| Week 10 | @ Minnesota | 23–20 | 25.7–21.8 | 1.0 |
| Week 12 | vs Penn State | 28–10 | 32.5–23.1 | 8.6 |
| Week 13 | @ Iowa | 20–17 | 30.7–14.5 | 13.3 |
| Week 14 | vs Maryland | 28–38 | 26.9–22.9 | 14.0 |