2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 8:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Michigan State @ Nebraska

Predicted scoreLikely

Michigan State

19.8

Nebraska

31.6

Nebraska win probability: 77%

Margin (Nebraska − Michigan State): 11.8 (80% range -8 to 32)

Total: 51.5 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: Michigan State 27 – Nebraska 38 (margin error 0.8, total error 13.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.