2025 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2025, 3:00 AM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Michigan State @ USC

Predicted scoreLikely

Michigan State

19.1

USC

35.3

USC win probability: 85%

Margin (USC − Michigan State): 16.2 (80% range -4 to 37)

Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Michigan State 31 – USC 45 (margin error 2.2, total error 21.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.