2025 Week 14 · Nov 30, 2025, 12:00 AM · Ford Field (neutral site)

Maryland @ Michigan State

Predicted scoreLean

Maryland

26.9

Michigan State

22.9

Michigan State win probability: 40%

Margin (Michigan State − Maryland): -4.0 (80% range -24 to 16)

Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Maryland 28 – Michigan State 38 (margin error 14.0, total error 16.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.