2025 Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025, 7:30 PM · Huntington Bank Stadium

Michigan State @ Minnesota

Predicted scoreLean

Michigan State

21.8

Minnesota

25.7

Minnesota win probability: 60%

Margin (Minnesota − Michigan State): 4.0 (80% range -15 to 24)

Total: 47.5 (80% range 26 to 71)

Actual: Michigan State 20 – Minnesota 23 (margin error 1.0, total error 4.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.