2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 8:30 PM · Kinnick Stadium
Michigan State @ Iowa
Predicted scoreConfident
Michigan State
14.5
Iowa
30.7
Iowa win probability: 86%
Margin (Iowa − Michigan State): 16.3 (80% range -3 to 35)
Total: 45.2 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Michigan State 17 – Iowa 20 (margin error 13.3, total error 8.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 24 | 0.98% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.87% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.87% |
| 7 | 21 | 0.85% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.84% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.