2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 11:30 PM · Spartan Stadium
Michigan @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan
30.3
Michigan State
20.8
Michigan State win probability: 27%
Margin (Michigan State − Michigan): -9.5 (80% range -30 to 10)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Michigan 31 – Michigan State 20 (margin error 1.5, total error 0.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.