Michigan

Big Ten

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	vs Indiana	29.4–22.4	33%
Week 9	@ Rutgers	21.4–33.5	78%
Week 10	vs Michigan State	18.4–30.2	78%
Week 11	@ Oregon	28.1–18.4	26%
Week 12	vs UCLA	22.4–26.2	60%
Week 13	@ Ohio State	31.7–16.8	17%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs Western Michigan	12–13	14.2–34.6	19.4
Week 2	vs Oklahoma	10–17	25.1–23.0	9.1
Week 3	vs UTEP	17–52	8.1–40.7	2.3
Week 4	vs Iowa	20–19	22.4–23.4	1.9
Week 5	@ Minnesota	20–14	19.8–28.4	14.6
Week 7	vs Penn State	18–21	23.6–26.6	0.0