Predicted scoreLean
Indiana
29.4
Michigan
22.4
Michigan win probability: 33%
Margin (Michigan − Indiana): -7.0 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:48 PM | -14.0 | 53.0 | 19% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:50 PM | -14.0 | 53.0 | 19% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:30 PM | -14.0 | 53.0 | 19% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:04 AM | -14.0 | 53.0 | 19% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:14 PM | -14.0 | 52.9 | 19% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:47 PM | -15.1 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:47 PM | -14.9 | 53.1 | 18% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:45 PM | -13.7 | 54.9 | 20% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:21 PM | -13.7 | 54.9 | 20% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:33 AM | -13.5 | 54.9 | 20% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:56 PM | -13.5 | 54.9 | 20% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:00 PM | -8.3 | 55.2 | 30% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:43 PM | -8.5 | 53.3 | 30% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:11 PM | -7.9 | 53.3 | 31% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:15 PM | -7.0 | 51.8 | 33% |