Predicted scoreLikely
Indiana
33.5
Michigan
19.5
Michigan win probability: 19%
Margin (Michigan − Indiana): -14.0 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 31 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:48 PM | -14.0 | 53.0 | 19% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:50 PM | -14.0 | 53.0 | 19% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:30 PM | -14.0 | 53.0 | 19% |