Predicted scoreToss-up
UCLA
22.4
Michigan
26.2
Michigan win probability: 60%
Margin (Michigan − UCLA): 3.8 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:49 PM | 14.8 | 51.2 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:50 PM | 14.7 | 51.2 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:40 PM | 14.8 | 51.2 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:48 AM | 14.8 | 51.2 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:34 PM | 14.7 | 51.1 | 82% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:04 PM | 14.0 | 51.1 | 81% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:02 PM | 11.0 | 51.2 | 76% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:28 PM | 11.0 | 52.2 | 76% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:28 PM | 11.0 | 52.3 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:41 PM | 11.0 | 52.3 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:16 PM | 11.0 | 52.3 | 76% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:02 PM | 5.9 | 53.9 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:16 PM | 5.8 | 51.4 | 65% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:15 PM | 4.7 | 48.4 | 62% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:38 PM | 3.8 | 48.6 | 60% |