2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 PM · Ohio Stadium
Michigan @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan
16.8
Ohio State
31.7
Ohio State win probability: 83%
Margin (Ohio State − Michigan): 14.9 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 48.5 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:07 PM | 15.1 | 50.7 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:12 PM | 15.1 | 50.7 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:38 PM | 15.1 | 50.7 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:52 AM | 15.0 | 50.7 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:07 PM | 15.1 | 50.8 | 83% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:43 PM | 14.6 | 50.5 | 82% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:21 PM | 13.9 | 50.8 | 82% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:24 PM | 12.4 | 52.4 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:01 PM | 12.4 | 52.4 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:17 PM | 12.7 | 52.4 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:37 PM | 12.7 | 52.4 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:48 PM | 11.8 | 51.2 | 78% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:52 PM | 13.8 | 51.2 | 82% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:14 PM | 14.2 | 50.3 | 82% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:55 PM | 14.9 | 48.5 | 83% |