Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan
18.4
Oregon
28.1
Oregon win probability: 74%
Margin (Oregon − Michigan): 9.7 (80% range -10 to 28)
Total: 46.5 (80% range 26 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.88% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.88% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:34 PM | 14.2 | 52.6 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:34 PM | 14.2 | 52.6 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:33 PM | 14.3 | 52.6 | 82% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:06 AM | 14.3 | 52.6 | 82% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:10 PM | 14.2 | 52.6 | 82% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:50 PM | 13.6 | 52.0 | 81% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:48 PM | 11.5 | 52.5 | 77% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:07 PM | 5.2 | 52.8 | 62% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:59 PM | 5.2 | 52.9 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:04 PM | 5.4 | 52.9 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:31 PM | 5.4 | 52.9 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:33 PM | 7.5 | 53.3 | 68% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:01 PM | 9.7 | 51.7 | 73% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:05 PM | 9.7 | 47.9 | 74% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:10 PM | 9.7 | 46.5 | 74% |