Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan
19.2
Oregon
33.5
Oregon win probability: 82%
Margin (Oregon − Michigan): 14.3 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:34 PM | 14.2 | 52.6 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:34 PM | 14.2 | 52.6 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:33 PM | 14.3 | 52.6 | 82% |