Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan
28.4
Minnesota
19.8
Minnesota win probability: 28%
Margin (Minnesota − Michigan): -8.6 (80% range -28 to 10)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Michigan 14 – Minnesota 20 (margin error 14.6, total error 14.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.75% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:06 PM | -6.5 | 49.4 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:08 PM | -6.5 | 49.4 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:21 PM | -6.4 | 49.4 | 34% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:45 AM | -6.4 | 49.4 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:00 PM | -6.4 | 49.4 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:08 PM | -6.4 | 48.4 | 34% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:43 PM | -8.3 | 48.2 | 29% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:19 PM | -12.7 | 49.4 | 20% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:38 PM | -12.7 | 49.4 | 20% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:54 AM | -12.4 | 49.3 | 21% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:35 PM | -12.4 | 49.3 | 21% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:21 PM | -8.6 | 48.2 | 28% |