Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa
22.4
Michigan
23.4
Michigan win probability: 53%
Margin (Michigan − Iowa): 0.9 (80% range -18 to 20)
Total: 45.8 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Iowa 20 – Michigan 19 (margin error 1.9, total error 6.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:51 PM | 1.2 | 46.6 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:59 PM | 1.3 | 46.5 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:55 PM | 1.5 | 46.5 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:53 AM | 1.3 | 46.8 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:41 PM | 0.9 | 46.6 | 53% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:48 PM | -0.8 | 47.1 | 48% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:58 PM | -1.3 | 45.2 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:28 PM | 1.4 | 45.5 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:07 PM | 0.9 | 45.8 | 53% |