Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa
22.5
Michigan
24.0
Michigan win probability: 54%
Margin (Michigan − Iowa): 1.5 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 46.5 (80% range 26 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:51 PM | 1.2 | 46.6 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:59 PM | 1.3 | 46.5 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:55 PM | 1.5 | 46.5 | 54% |