2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Michigan Stadium
Penn State @ Michigan
Predicted scoreToss-up
Penn State
26.0
Michigan
26.2
Michigan win probability: 50%
Margin (Michigan − Penn State): 0.2 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:34 PM | 0.2 | 52.2 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:35 PM | 0.2 | 52.2 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:45 PM | 0.2 | 52.2 | 50% |