2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Michigan Stadium
Penn State @ Michigan
Predicted scoreToss-up
Penn State
23.6
Michigan
26.6
Michigan win probability: 58%
Margin (Michigan − Penn State): 3.0 (80% range -17 to 23)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Penn State 18 – Michigan 21 (margin error 0.0, total error 11.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:34 PM | 0.2 | 52.2 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:35 PM | 0.2 | 52.2 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:45 PM | 0.2 | 52.2 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:56 AM | 0.2 | 52.2 | 50% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:42 PM | 0.3 | 52.2 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:03 PM | 0.6 | 52.4 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:09 PM | -0.9 | 51.3 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:11 PM | 3.0 | 51.1 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:55 PM | 3.0 | 51.2 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:16 AM | 2.6 | 51.1 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:35 PM | 2.6 | 51.1 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:32 PM | 3.2 | 50.3 | 58% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:29 PM | 2.8 | 50.4 | 57% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:45 PM | 3.0 | 50.2 | 58% |