2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Michigan Stadium
Michigan State @ Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan State
19.3
Michigan
30.9
Michigan win probability: 77%
Margin (Michigan − Michigan State): 11.7 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:16 PM | 11.7 | 50.2 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:15 PM | 11.7 | 50.2 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:52 PM | 11.7 | 50.2 | 77% |