2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Michigan Stadium
Michigan State @ Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan State
18.4
Michigan
30.2
Michigan win probability: 78%
Margin (Michigan − Michigan State): 11.7 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.88% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:16 PM | 11.7 | 50.2 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:15 PM | 11.7 | 50.2 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:52 PM | 11.7 | 50.2 | 77% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:06 AM | 11.6 | 50.2 | 77% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:47 PM | 11.8 | 50.2 | 78% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:21 PM | 11.9 | 50.0 | 78% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:25 PM | 12.3 | 52.1 | 78% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:35 PM | 12.6 | 52.9 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:06 PM | 12.6 | 53.0 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:44 PM | 12.5 | 53.0 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:57 PM | 12.5 | 53.0 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:03 PM | 13.5 | 50.2 | 81% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:32 PM | 13.3 | 48.8 | 81% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:16 PM | 13.2 | 48.6 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:57 PM | 11.7 | 48.6 | 78% |