Predicted scoreConfident
UTEP
8.1
Michigan
40.7
Michigan win probability: 99%
Margin (Michigan − UTEP): 32.7 (80% range 13 to 53)
Total: 48.8 (80% range 28 to 72)
Actual: UTEP 17 – Michigan 52 (margin error 2.3, total error 20.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38 | 1.40% |
| 0 | 31 | 1.29% |
| 0 | 35 | 1.19% |
| 7 | 38 | 1.18% |
| 0 | 45 | 1.13% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:35 PM | 30.2 | 48.8 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:40 PM | 30.1 | 49.0 | 98% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:11 PM | 30.1 | 48.9 | 98% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:42 AM | 30.1 | 49.0 | 98% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:28 PM | 30.4 | 49.0 | 98% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:01 PM | 30.8 | 49.3 | 98% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:20 PM | 31.4 | 48.6 | 98% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:08 PM | 32.7 | 48.8 | 99% |