Predicted scoreLikely
Michigan
33.5
Rutgers
21.4
Rutgers win probability: 22%
Margin (Rutgers − Michigan): -12.1 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:04 PM | -9.5 | 57.7 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:04 PM | -9.5 | 57.8 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:09 PM | -8.1 | 57.7 | 31% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:19 AM | -8.1 | 57.7 | 31% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:36 PM | -9.6 | 57.7 | 28% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:31 PM | -9.4 | 58.7 | 28% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:21 PM | -16.9 | 57.3 | 14% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:02 PM | -19.3 | 55.5 | 11% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:37 PM | -19.3 | 55.5 | 11% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:56 AM | -19.0 | 55.3 | 12% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:26 PM | -19.0 | 55.3 | 12% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:24 PM | -16.0 | 58.1 | 16% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:17 PM | -15.3 | 55.7 | 17% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:33 PM | -15.9 | 55.1 | 16% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:33 PM | -12.1 | 54.9 | 22% |