2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 11:30 PM · Michigan Stadium
Western Michigan @ Michigan
Predicted scoreConfident
Western Michigan
14.2
Michigan
34.6
Michigan win probability: 91%
Margin (Michigan − Western Michigan): 20.4 (80% range 0 to 40)
Total: 48.8 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.95% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.82% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:10 PM | 20.3 | 48.8 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:20 PM | 20.6 | 48.9 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:12 PM | 20.4 | 48.8 | 91% |