2025 Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025, 11:00 PM · Spartan Stadium

Western Michigan @ Michigan State

Predicted scoreLikely

Western Michigan

21.9

Michigan State

30.9

Michigan State win probability: 72%

Margin (Michigan State − Western Michigan): 9.1 (80% range -11 to 29)

Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Western Michigan 6 – Michigan State 23 (margin error 7.9, total error 23.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.