2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 7:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Michigan State @ Indiana

Predicted scoreConfident

Michigan State

11.6

Indiana

41.2

Indiana win probability: 97%

Margin (Indiana − Michigan State): 29.6 (80% range 10 to 50)

Total: 52.9 (80% range 31 to 76)

Actual: Michigan State 13 – Indiana 38 (margin error 4.6, total error 1.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.