2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · Spartan Stadium
Penn State @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLikely
Penn State
32.5
Michigan State
23.1
Michigan State win probability: 28%
Margin (Michigan State − Penn State): -9.4 (80% range -31 to 11)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Penn State 28 – Michigan State 10 (margin error 8.6, total error 17.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.