2025 Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025, 4:00 PM · Spartan Stadium
UCLA @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLean
UCLA
25.5
Michigan State
30.2
Michigan State win probability: 61%
Margin (Michigan State − UCLA): 4.7 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: UCLA 38 – Michigan State 13 (margin error 29.7, total error 4.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.