2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 5:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Michigan State @ Indiana

Predicted scoreToss-up

Michigan State

25.8

Indiana

27.0

Indiana win probability: 53%

Margin (Indiana − Michigan State): 1.1 (80% range -20 to 21)

Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Michigan State 24 – Indiana 21 (margin error 4.1, total error 7.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.