2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 7:30 PM · Huntington Bank Stadium

Michigan State @ Minnesota

Predicted scoreToss-up

Michigan State

24.8

Minnesota

26.5

Minnesota win probability: 54%

Margin (Minnesota − Michigan State): 1.7 (80% range -18 to 21)

Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Michigan State 12 – Minnesota 27 (margin error 13.3, total error 12.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.