2023 Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023, 11:30 PM · Spartan Stadium
Michigan @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreConfident
Michigan
35.2
Michigan State
15.7
Michigan State win probability: 10%
Margin (Michigan State − Michigan): -19.5 (80% range -39 to 0)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Michigan 49 – Michigan State 0 (margin error 29.5, total error 1.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 7 | 0.80% |
| 28 | 10 | 0.78% |
| 38 | 10 | 0.78% |
| 35 | 10 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.