2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 11:30 PM · Kinnick Stadium
Michigan State @ Iowa
Predicted scoreToss-up
Michigan State
22.4
Iowa
19.6
Iowa win probability: 43%
Margin (Iowa − Michigan State): -2.8 (80% range -21 to 16)
Total: 42.0 (80% range 21 to 64)
Actual: Michigan State 16 – Iowa 26 (margin error 12.8, total error 0.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.88% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.87% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 10 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:40:59 PM | -2.8 | 42.0 | 43% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:40 PM | -2.8 | 42.0 | 43% |