2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Illinois @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Illinois
28.5
Michigan State
26.3
Michigan State win probability: 44%
Margin (Michigan State − Illinois): -2.2 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Illinois 38 – Michigan State 37 (margin error 1.2, total error 20.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:19 PM | -5.1 | 52.3 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:23 PM | -5.0 | 52.3 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:20 PM | -5.0 | 52.3 | 37% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:13 AM | -5.0 | 52.3 | 37% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:23 PM | -5.0 | 52.3 | 37% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:11 PM | -5.0 | 52.8 | 38% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:21 PM | -3.9 | 55.2 | 40% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:46 PM | -3.6 | 56.7 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:02 PM | -3.6 | 56.7 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:46 AM | -3.3 | 56.7 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:55 PM | -3.3 | 56.7 | 42% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:46 PM | -2.1 | 55.8 | 45% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:55 PM | -2.2 | 54.8 | 44% |