2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Illinois @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLean
Illinois
28.6
Michigan State
23.6
Michigan State win probability: 37%
Margin (Michigan State − Illinois): -5.0 (80% range -25 to 15)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:19 PM | -5.1 | 52.3 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:23 PM | -5.0 | 52.3 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:20 PM | -5.0 | 52.3 | 37% |