2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM · Notre Dame Stadium
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreConfident
Michigan State
14.6
Notre Dame
38.3
Notre Dame win probability: 93%
Margin (Notre Dame − Michigan State): 23.7 (80% range 3 to 45)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: Michigan State 10 – Notre Dame 27 (margin error 6.7, total error 15.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 10 | 35 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:37 PM | 21.6 | 50.2 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:46 PM | 21.6 | 50.6 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:26 PM | 21.7 | 50.6 | 92% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:20 AM | 21.7 | 50.5 | 92% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:15 PM | 21.5 | 51.2 | 91% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:18 PM | 21.6 | 50.3 | 92% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:39 PM | 22.4 | 53.9 | 92% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:56 PM | 23.7 | 52.9 | 93% |