2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM · Notre Dame Stadium
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreConfident
Michigan State
14.5
Notre Dame
36.2
Notre Dame win probability: 92%
Margin (Notre Dame − Michigan State): 21.7 (80% range 2 to 42)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:37 PM | 21.6 | 50.2 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:46 PM | 21.6 | 50.6 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:26 PM | 21.7 | 50.6 | 92% |