2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM · Spartan Stadium
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreConfident
Eastern Michigan
18.6
Michigan State
34.8
Michigan State win probability: 85%
Margin (Michigan State − Eastern Michigan): 16.2 (80% range -3 to 37)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Eastern Michigan 7 – Michigan State 35 (margin error 11.8, total error 11.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:23 PM | 12.4 | 54.2 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:27 PM | 12.4 | 54.3 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:35 PM | 12.6 | 54.1 | 78% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:35 AM | 12.2 | 54.3 | 78% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:04 PM | 12.7 | 54.2 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:55 PM | 13.6 | 54.1 | 80% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:28 PM | 16.2 | 53.4 | 85% |