2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Camp Randall Stadium
Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Predicted scoreLean
Michigan State
21.2
Wisconsin
27.5
Wisconsin win probability: 66%
Margin (Wisconsin − Michigan State): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 26)
Total: 48.7 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Michigan State 3 – Wisconsin 31 (margin error 21.6, total error 14.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:12 PM | 4.4 | 46.5 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:09 PM | 4.4 | 46.5 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:43 PM | 4.4 | 46.5 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:54 AM | 4.4 | 46.6 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:56 PM | 4.4 | 46.6 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:47 PM | 4.6 | 46.2 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:44 PM | 3.5 | 49.0 | 59% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:13 PM | 3.1 | 50.7 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:43 PM | 3.1 | 50.7 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:54 AM | 3.4 | 50.7 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:37 PM | 3.4 | 50.7 | 59% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:23 PM | 6.4 | 48.7 | 66% |