2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Camp Randall Stadium
Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Predicted scoreLean
Michigan State
21.1
Wisconsin
25.5
Wisconsin win probability: 61%
Margin (Wisconsin − Michigan State): 4.4 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 46.5 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:12 PM | 4.4 | 46.5 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:09 PM | 4.4 | 46.5 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:43 PM | 4.4 | 46.5 | 61% |